Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 47.682671 56.202609 65.560419 76.568288 89.128040 102.976259 119.363899
2024-10-27 32.648761 43.295412 56.166339 72.731830 93.332020 117.941214 149.380649
2024-11-03 26.629816 38.611795 54.171199 75.550158 103.809462 139.495586 187.516658
2024-11-10 22.988966 35.914345 53.719018 79.511756 115.297728 162.489171 228.578340
2024-11-17 20.097019 33.564961 53.111974 82.763504 125.648163 184.310300 269.248788
2024-11-24 17.099893 30.459109 50.839301 83.122510 131.646059 200.285030 302.716926
2024-12-01 14.100841 26.790870 47.130812 80.742378 133.173261 209.747928 327.327205
2024-12-08 12.219819 24.618955 45.396049 81.043525 138.489876 224.748238 360.483593
2024-12-15 10.815346 23.024054 44.346713 82.215685 145.076123 241.852361 397.513995
2024-12-22 8.510124 19.365043 39.286192 76.139519 139.467050 239.822139 405.353572
2024-12-29 7.711133 18.465458 38.957346 78.042721 146.949124 258.487800 445.871647
2025-01-05 6.712707 16.982456 37.351179 77.475181 150.134027 270.366276 476.211908
2025-01-12 6.568502 17.436770 39.755674 84.956682 168.698653 309.875182 555.451166
2025-01-19 5.195520 14.903058 35.974035 80.549182 166.118184 314.581088 579.201456
2025-01-26 4.705472 14.317940 36.071150 83.604292 177.264546 343.202356 644.226166
2025-02-02 4.371677 14.043504 36.777396 87.922694 191.074214 377.246502 720.257403
2025-02-09 4.016463 13.630584 37.105066 91.466796 203.646920 409.817242 795.448891
2025-02-16 3.506290 12.667247 36.015406 91.857977 210.051189 431.638768 852.995111
2025-02-23 2.908877 11.286959 33.698355 89.264013 210.207665 441.950163 890.598778
2025-03-02 2.545114 10.514469 32.746059 89.592266 216.297518 463.583552 949.582311
2025-03-09 2.270361 9.951845 32.237281 90.869788 224.434973 489.512168 1017.633626
2025-03-16 1.739061 8.333734 28.612767 84.244991 215.048504 480.987288 1021.286958
2025-03-23 1.581389 8.017851 28.542699 86.320702 224.821158 510.563511 1097.988736